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Parti conservateur du Canada

Mise à jour : 4 octobre 2026
ChefPierre Poilievre
Proportion du suffrage national en 202541.3%
Projection de vote actuelle32,2 % ± 4,2 %
Nombre actuel de députés-es138
Projection de sièges actuelle72 [44-110]

Infolettre Qc125

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Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 4 octobre 2026 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% Efficacité du vote | PCC Qc125 8,5 siège/% 72 [44-110] 32% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
✓ Graphique copié !
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × PCC 72 [44-110] 4 octobre 2026 ✓ Gain net projeté × Perte nette projetée Carré pâle = Pivot TNL 1/7 ÎPE 0/4 NÉ 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 11/122 MB 5/14 SK 9/14 AB 28/37 CB 6/43 YT TNO NU
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Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.

Projection du vote | 4 octobre 2026

23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28,0% ▼ 32,2% ± 4,2% ▼ Max. 36,3% ▼ 2025 41,3% Probabilités % PCC October 4, 2026
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Projection de sièges | 4 octobre 2026

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 44 ▼ 72 ▼ Max. 110 ▼ 2021 144 seats Probabilities % CPC October 4, 2026
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Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Souris—Moose Mountain
Steven Bonk
 C PCC solide
2.
Grande Prairie
Chris Warkentin
 C PCC solide
3.
Lakeland
Shannon Stubbs
 C PCC solide
4.
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
Laila Goodridge
 C PCC solide
5.
Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley
Jeremy Patzer
 C PCC solide
6.
Bow River
David Bexte
 C PCC solide
7.
Battle River—Crowfoot
Pierre Poilievre
 C PCC solide
8.
Foothills
John Barlow
 C PCC solide
9.
Peace River—Westlock
Arnold Viersen
 C PCC solide
10.
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
Glen Motz
 C PCC solide
11.
Parkland
Dane Lloyd
 C PCC solide
12.
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek
Kelly Block
 C PCC solide
13.
Leduc—Wetaskiwin
Mike Lake
 C PCC solide
14.
Yorkton—Melville
Vacant
 PCC solide
15.
Ponoka—Didsbury
Blaine Calkins
 C PCC solide
16.
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake
Rosemarie Falk
 C PCC solide
17.
Red Deer
Burton Bailey
 C PCC solide
18.
Airdrie—Cochrane
Blake Richards
 C PCC solide
19.
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
Fraser Tolmie
 C PCC solide
20.
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
Bob Zimmer
 C PCC solide
21.
Yellowhead
William Stevenson
 C PCC solide
22.
Prince Albert
Randy Hoback
 C PCC solide
23.
Portage—Lisgar
Branden Leslie
 C PCC solide
24.
Riding Mountain
Dan Mazier
 C PCC solide
25.
Beauce
Jason Groleau
 C PCC solide
26.
Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière
Luc Berthold
 C PCC solide
27.
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
Garnett Genuis
 C PCC solide
28.
Calgary Shepard
Tom Kmiec
 C PCC solide
29.
Provencher
Ted Falk
 C PCC solide
30.
Brandon—Souris
Grant Jackson
 C PCC solide
31.
Regina—Qu’Appelle
Andrew Scheer
 C PCC solide
32.
St. Albert—Sturgeon River
Michael Cooper
 C PCC probable
33.
Calgary Midnapore
Stephanie Kusie
 C PCC probable
34.
Cariboo—Prince George
Todd Doherty
 C PCC probable
35.
Thornhill
Melissa Lantsman
 C PCC probable
36.
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Joel Godin
 C PCC probable
37.
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman
James Bezan
 C PCC probable
38.
Lethbridge
Rachael Thomas
 C PCC probable
39.
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
Dominique Vien
 C PCC probable
40.
Calgary-Est
Jasraj Singh Hallan
 C PCC probable
41.
Tobique—Mactaquac
Richard Bragdon
 C PCC probable
42.
Calgary Heritage
Shuv Majumdar
 C PCC probable
43.
Lévis—Lotbinière
Jacques Gourde
 C PCC probable
44.
Saskatoon-Ouest
Brad Redekopp
 C PCC probable
45.
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies
Rob Morrison
 C PCC probable
46.
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata
Bernard Genereux
 C PCC enclin
47.
King—Vaughan
Anna Roberts
 C PCC enclin
48.
Dufferin—Caledon
Kyle Seeback
 C PCC enclin
49.
Calgary Signal Hill
David McKenzie
 C PCC enclin
50.
Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford
Brad Vis
 C PCC enclin
51.
Calgary Nose Hill
Michelle Rempel Garner
 C PCC enclin
52.
Chilliwack—Hope
Mark Strahl
 C PCC enclin
53.
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
Scot Davidson
 C PCC enclin
54.
Calgary Crowfoot
Pat Kelly
 C PCC enclin
55.
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Dave Epp
 C PCC enclin
56.
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Michael Guglielmin
 C PCC enclin
57.
Haldimand—Norfolk
Leslyn Lewis
 C PCC enclin
58.
Essex
Chris Lewis
 C PCC enclin
59.
Edmonton Gateway
Tim Uppal
 C PCC enclin
60.
Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk
Gérard Deltell
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
61.
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Pierre Paul-Hus
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
62.
Edmonton-Nord-Ouest
Billy Morin
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
63.
Calgary Skyview
Amanpreet Singh Gill
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
64.
Edmonton Manning
Ziad Aboultaif
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
65.
Barrie-Sud—Innisfil
John Brassard
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
66.
Fundy Royal
Rob Moore
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
67.
Saint John—St. Croix
John Williamson
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
68.
Central Newfoundland
Clifford Small
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
69.
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke
Cheryl Gallant
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
70.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes
Jamie Schmale
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
71.
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies
Mel Arnold
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
72.
Edmonton-Sud-Est
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
73.
Richmond—Arthabaska
Éric Lefebvre
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
74.
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong
Marilyn Gladu
 L Pivot PLC/PCC
75.
Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry
Eric Duncan
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
76.
Saskatoon-Sud
Kevin Waugh
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
77.
Edmonton Griesbach
Kerry Diotte
 C Pivot PCC/NPD
78.
York—Durham
Jacob Mantle
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
79.
Montmorency—Charlevoix
Gabriel Hardy
 C Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ
80.
Oxford
Arpan Khanna
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
81.
Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola
Frank Caputo
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
82.
Middlesex—London
Lianne Rood
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
83.
Long Range Mountains
Carol Anstey
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
84.
Calgary-Centre
Greg McLean
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
85.
Abbotsford—Langley-Sud
Sukhman Singh Gill
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
86.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga
Shelby Kramp-Neuman
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
87.
Saskatoon—University
Corey Tochor
 C PLC enclin
88.
Regina—Wascana
Michael Kram
 C PLC enclin
89.
Edmonton-Ouest
Kelly McCauley
 C PLC enclin
90.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Alex Ruff
 C PLC enclin
91.
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong
Eric Melillo
 C PLC enclin
92.
Elmwood—Transcona
Colin Reynolds
 C NPD enclin
93.
Langley Township—Fraser Heights
Tako van Popta
 C PLC enclin
94.
Regina—Lewvan
Warren Steinley
 C PLC enclin
95.
Perth—Wellington
John Nater
 C PLC enclin
96.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Costas Menegakis
 C PLC enclin
97.
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord
Dan Muys
 C PLC enclin
98.
Edmonton Riverbend
Matt Jeneroux [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC enclin
99.
Huron—Bruce
Ben Lobb
 C PLC enclin
100.
Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations
Larry Brock
 C PLC enclin
101.
Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee
Scott Anderson
 C PLC enclin
102.
Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud
Dan Albas
 C PLC enclin
103.
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Ellis Ross
 C NPD enclin
104.
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Tamara Kronis
 C PLC enclin
105.
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
Gaetan Malette
 C PLC enclin
106.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Shipley
 C PLC enclin
107.
Richmond Hill-Sud
Vincent Neil Ho
 C PLC enclin
108.
Kildonan—St. Paul
Raquel Dancho
 C PLC enclin
109.
Calgary McKnight
Dalwinder Gill
 C PLC enclin
110.
Simcoe—Grey
Terry Dowdall
 C PLC enclin
111.
Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord
Michael Chong
 C PLC enclin
112.
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Scott Aitchison
 C PLC enclin
113.
Richmond-Centre—Marpole
Chak Au
 C PLC enclin
114.
Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Jim Belanger
 C PLC enclin
115.
Niagara-Ouest
Dean Allison
 C PLC enclin
116.
Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek
Ned Kuruc
 C PLC enclin
117.
Oshawa
Rhonda Kirkland
 C PLC enclin
118.
Miramichi—Grand Lake
Mike Dawson
 C PLC enclin
119.
Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest
Helena Konanz
 C PLC probable
120.
York-Centre
Roman Baber
 C PLC probable
121.
Terra Nova—Les Péninsules
Jonathan Rowe
 C PLC probable
122.
Lanark—Frontenac
Scott Reid
 C PLC probable
123.
Kitchener-Centre
Kelly DeRidder
 C Pivot PLC/PVC
124.
Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud
Andrew Lawton
 C PLC probable
125.
Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord
Jamil Jivani
 C PLC probable
126.
North Island—Powell River
Aaron Gunn
 C NPD enclin
127.
Cambridge
Connie Cody
 C PLC probable
128.
Brampton-Ouest
Amarjeet Gill
 C PLC probable
129.
Simcoe-Nord
Adam Chambers
 C PLC probable
130.
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes
Michael Barrett
 C PLC probable
131.
Cloverdale—Langley City
Tamara Jansen
 C PLC probable
132.
London—Fanshawe
Kurt Holman
 C Pivot PLC/NPD
133.
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
Tony Baldinelli
 C PLC probable
134.
Labrador
Philip Earle
 L PLC probable
135.
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Marc Dalton
 C PLC probable
136.
Cumberland—Colchester
Alana Hirtle
 L PLC probable
137.
Acadie—Annapolis
Chris d’Entremont [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC probable
138.
Windsor-Ouest
Harbinder Gill
 C Pivot PLC/NPD
139.
Calgary Confederation
Corey Hogan
 L PLC probable
140.
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Jeff Kibble
 C Pivot PLC/NPD
141.
Niagara-Sud
Fred Davies
 C PLC probable
142.
Newmarket—Aurora
Sandra Cobena
 C PLC probable
143.
Egmont
Bobby Morrissey
 L PLC probable
144.
Northumberland—Clarke
Philip Lawrence
 C PLC probable
145.
Markham—Unionville
Michael Ma [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC probable
146.
Kelowna
Stephen Fuhr
 L PLC probable
147.
Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler
Matt Strauss
 C PLC probable
148.
Richmond-Est—Steveston
Parm Bains
 L PLC probable
149.
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Gurbux Saini
 L PLC probable
150.
Brampton-Centre
Amandeep Sodhi
 L PLC probable
151.
Brampton-Sud
Sonia Sidhu
 L PLC probable
152.
Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish
Jaime Battiste
 L PLC probable
153.
Brampton-Nord—Caledon
Ruby Sahota
 L PLC probable
154.
Surrey-Centre
Randeep Sarai
 L PLC probable
155.
Surrey Newton
Sukh Dhaliwal
 L PLC probable
156.
Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud
Kristina Tesser Derksen
 L PLC probable
157.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Tim Louis
 L PLC probable
158.
Surrey-Sud—White Rock
Ernie Klassen
 L PLC probable
159.
Port Moody—Coquitlam
Zoe Royer
 L PLC probable
160.
Nova-Centre
Sean Fraser
 L PLC probable
161.
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Ron McKinnon
 L PLC probable
162.
Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore
Kathy Borrelli
 C PLC probable
163.
Brampton-Est
Maninder Sidhu
 L PLC probable
164.
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park
Shafqat Ali
 L PLC probable
165.
Nunavut
Lori Idlout [Élu avec le NPD]
 L Pivot PLC/NPD
166.
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Pauline Rochefort
 L PLC probable
167.
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma
Terry Sheehan
 L PLC probable
168.
Courtenay—Alberni
Gord Johns
 N NPD probable
169.
Edmonton-Centre
Eleanor Olszewski
 L PLC probable
170.
Burnaby Central
Wade Wei Lin Chang
 L PLC probable
171.
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Marcus Powlowski
 L PLC solide
172.
Mississauga-Est—Cooksville
Peter Fonseca
 L PLC solide
173.
Jonquière
Mario Simard
 B BQ probable
174.
Oakville-Est
Anita Anand
 L PLC solide
175.
Territoires du Nord-Ouest
Rebecca Alty
 L PLC solide
176.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Vince Gasparro
 L PLC solide
177.
Markham—Stouffville
Helena Jaczek
 L PLC solide
178.
Cardigan
Kent McDonald
 L PLC solide
179.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Rechie Valdez
 L PLC solide
180.
Bay of Quinte
Christopher Malette
 L PLC solide
181.
Beauport—Limoilou
Steeve Lavoie
 L PLC probable
182.
Carleton
Bruce Fanjoy
 L PLC solide
183.
Delta
Jill McKnight
 L PLC solide
184.
Mont-Royal
Anthony Housefather
 L PLC solide
185.
Madawaska—Restigouche
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
 L PLC solide
186.
South Shore—St. Margarets
Jessica Fancy-Landry
 L PLC solide
187.
Hamilton Mountain
Lisa Hepfner
 L PLC solide
188.
Yukon
Brendan Hanley
 L PLC solide
189.
Malpeque
Heath MacDonald
 L PLC solide
190.
New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville
Jake Sawatzky
 L PLC enclin
191.
Sydney—Glace Bay
Mike Kelloway
 L PLC solide
192.
Whitby
Ryan Turnbull
 L PLC solide
193.
Willowdale
Ali Ehsassi
 L PLC solide
194.
Don Valley-Nord
Maggie Chi
 L PLC solide