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Parti conservateur du Canada

Mise à jour : 16 août 2026
ChefPierre Poilievre
Proportion du suffrage national en 202541.3%
Projection de vote actuelle33,4 % ± 4,4 %
Nombre actuel de députés-es139
Projection de sièges actuelle87 [53-131]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 16 août 2026 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% Efficacité du vote | PCC Qc125 10,0 siège/% 87 [53-131] 33% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × PCC 87 [53-131] 16 août 2026 ✓ Gain net projeté × Perte nette projetée Carré pâle = Pivot TNL 0/7 ÎPE 0/4 NÉ 0/11 NB 2/10 QC 10/78 ON 24/122 MB 5/14 SK 11/14 AB 28/37 CB 7/43 YT TNO NU
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.

Projection du vote | 16 août 2026

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29,1% ▼ 33,4% ± 4,4% ▼ Max. 37,8% ▼ 2025 41,3% Probabilités % PCC August 16, 2026

Projection de sièges | 16 août 2026

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 53 ▼ 87 ▼ Max. 131 ▼ 2021 144 seats Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC August 16, 2026

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti conservateur du Canada



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Souris—Moose Mountain
Steven Bonk
 C PCC solide
2.
Grande Prairie
Chris Warkentin
 C PCC solide
3.
Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley
Jeremy Patzer
 C PCC solide
4.
Lakeland
Shannon Stubbs
 C PCC solide
5.
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
Laila Goodridge
 C PCC solide
6.
Bow River
David Bexte
 C PCC solide
7.
Battle River—Crowfoot
Pierre Poilievre
 C PCC solide
8.
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek
Kelly Block
 C PCC solide
9.
Peace River—Westlock
Arnold Viersen
 C PCC solide
10.
Foothills
John Barlow
 C PCC solide
11.
Yorkton—Melville
Cathay Wagantall
 C PCC solide
12.
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
Glen Motz
 C PCC solide
13.
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake
Rosemarie Falk
 C PCC solide
14.
Parkland
Dane Lloyd
 C PCC solide
15.
Leduc—Wetaskiwin
Mike Lake
 C PCC solide
16.
Ponoka—Didsbury
Blaine Calkins
 C PCC solide
17.
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
Fraser Tolmie
 C PCC solide
18.
Red Deer
Burton Bailey
 C PCC solide
19.
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
Bob Zimmer
 C PCC solide
20.
Airdrie—Cochrane
Blake Richards
 C PCC solide
21.
Prince Albert
Randy Hoback
 C PCC solide
22.
Portage—Lisgar
Branden Leslie
 C PCC solide
23.
Yellowhead
William Stevenson
 C PCC solide
24.
Riding Mountain
Dan Mazier
 C PCC solide
25.
Provencher
Ted Falk
 C PCC solide
26.
Beauce
Jason Groleau
 C PCC solide
27.
Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière
Luc Berthold
 C PCC solide
28.
Brandon—Souris
Grant Jackson
 C PCC solide
29.
Regina—Qu’Appelle
Andrew Scheer
 C PCC solide
30.
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
Garnett Genuis
 C PCC solide
31.
Calgary Shepard
Tom Kmiec
 C PCC solide
32.
Thornhill
Melissa Lantsman
 C PCC solide
33.
Cariboo—Prince George
Todd Doherty
 C PCC probable
34.
St. Albert—Sturgeon River
Michael Cooper
 C PCC probable
35.
Calgary Midnapore
Stephanie Kusie
 C PCC probable
36.
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman
James Bezan
 C PCC probable
37.
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Joel Godin
 C PCC probable
38.
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
Dominique Vien
 C PCC probable
39.
King—Vaughan
Anna Roberts
 C PCC probable
40.
Dufferin—Caledon
Kyle Seeback
 C PCC probable
41.
Lévis—Lotbinière
Jacques Gourde
 C PCC probable
42.
Saskatoon-Ouest
Brad Redekopp
 C PCC probable
43.
Lethbridge
Rachael Thomas
 C PCC probable
44.
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata
Bernard Genereux
 C PCC probable
45.
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies
Rob Morrison
 C PCC probable
46.
Calgary-Est
Jasraj Singh Hallan
 C PCC probable
47.
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
Scot Davidson
 C PCC probable
48.
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Dave Epp
 C PCC probable
49.
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Michael Guglielmin
 C PCC probable
50.
Haldimand—Norfolk
Leslyn Lewis
 C PCC probable
51.
Essex
Chris Lewis
 C PCC probable
52.
Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford
Brad Vis
 C PCC probable
53.
Calgary Heritage
Shuv Majumdar
 C PCC probable
54.
Chilliwack—Hope
Mark Strahl
 C PCC probable
55.
Tobique—Mactaquac
Richard Bragdon
 C PCC enclin
56.
Barrie-Sud—Innisfil
John Brassard
 C PCC enclin
57.
Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk
Gérard Deltell
 C PCC enclin
58.
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke
Cheryl Gallant
 C PCC enclin
59.
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Pierre Paul-Hus
 C PCC enclin
60.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes
Jamie Schmale
 C PCC enclin
61.
Calgary Signal Hill
David McKenzie
 C PCC enclin
62.
Calgary Nose Hill
Michelle Rempel Garner
 C PCC enclin
63.
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong
Marilyn Gladu
 L PCC enclin
64.
Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry
Eric Duncan
 C PCC enclin
65.
York—Durham
Jacob Mantle
 C PCC enclin
66.
Oxford
Arpan Khanna
 C PCC enclin
67.
Calgary Crowfoot
Pat Kelly
 C PCC enclin
68.
Middlesex—London
Lianne Rood
 C PCC enclin
69.
Richmond—Arthabaska
Éric Lefebvre
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
70.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga
Shelby Kramp-Neuman
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
71.
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies
Mel Arnold
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
72.
Saskatoon-Sud
Kevin Waugh
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
73.
Edmonton Gateway
Tim Uppal
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
74.
Calgary Skyview
Amanpreet Singh Gill
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
75.
Edmonton-Nord-Ouest
Billy Morin
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
76.
Edmonton Manning
Ziad Aboultaif
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
77.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Alex Ruff
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
78.
Perth—Wellington
John Nater
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
79.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Costas Menegakis
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
80.
Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola
Frank Caputo
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
81.
Huron—Bruce
Ben Lobb
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
82.
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord
Dan Muys
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
83.
Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations
Larry Brock
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
84.
Montmorency—Charlevoix
Gabriel Hardy
 C Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ
85.
Fundy Royal
Rob Moore
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
86.
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong
Eric Melillo
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
87.
Saskatoon—University
Corey Tochor
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
88.
Saint John—St. Croix
John Williamson
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
89.
Regina—Wascana
Michael Kram
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
90.
Edmonton Griesbach
Kerry Diotte
 C Pivot PCC/NPD
91.
Central Newfoundland
Clifford Small
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
92.
Abbotsford—Langley-Sud
Sukhman Singh Gill
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
93.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Shipley
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
94.
Richmond Hill-Sud
Vincent Neil Ho
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
95.
Regina—Lewvan
Warren Steinley
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
96.
Edmonton-Sud-Est
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
97.
Simcoe—Grey
Terry Dowdall
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
98.
Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord
Michael Chong
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
99.
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
Gaetan Malette
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
100.
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Scott Aitchison
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
101.
Langley Township—Fraser Heights
Tako van Popta
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
102.
Niagara-Ouest
Dean Allison
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
103.
Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek
Ned Kuruc
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
104.
Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Jim Belanger
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
105.
Oshawa
Rhonda Kirkland
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
106.
York-Centre
Roman Baber
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
107.
Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee
Scott Anderson
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
108.
Lanark—Frontenac
Scott Reid
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
109.
Kildonan—St. Paul
Raquel Dancho
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
110.
Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord
Jamil Jivani
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
111.
Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud
Dan Albas
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
112.
Calgary-Centre
Greg McLean
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
113.
Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud
Andrew Lawton
 C Pivot PLC/PCC
114.
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Tamara Kronis
 C PLC enclin
115.
Cambridge
Connie Cody
 C PLC enclin
116.
Long Range Mountains
Carol Anstey
 C PLC enclin
117.
Simcoe-Nord
Adam Chambers
 C PLC enclin
118.
Edmonton-Ouest
Kelly McCauley
 C PLC enclin
119.
Elmwood—Transcona
Colin Reynolds
 C NPD enclin
120.
Brampton-Ouest
Amarjeet Gill
 C PLC enclin
121.
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes
Michael Barrett
 C PLC enclin
122.
Richmond-Centre—Marpole
Chak Au
 C PLC enclin
123.
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
Tony Baldinelli
 C PLC enclin
124.
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Ellis Ross
 C NPD enclin
125.
Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest
Helena Konanz
 C PLC enclin
126.
Edmonton Riverbend
Matt Jeneroux [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC enclin
127.
Niagara-Sud
Fred Davies
 C PLC enclin
128.
Newmarket—Aurora
Sandra Cobena
 C PLC enclin
129.
Kitchener-Centre
Kelly DeRidder
 C Pivot PLC/PCC/PVC
130.
Northumberland—Clarke
Philip Lawrence
 C PLC enclin
131.
Calgary McKnight
Dalwinder Gill
 C PLC enclin
132.
North Island—Powell River
Aaron Gunn
 C NPD enclin
133.
Markham—Unionville
Michael Ma [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC enclin
134.
Cloverdale—Langley City
Tamara Jansen
 C PLC enclin
135.
Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler
Matt Strauss
 C PLC enclin
136.
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Vacant
 Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ
137.
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Marc Dalton
 C PLC probable
138.
Miramichi—Grand Lake
Mike Dawson
 C PLC probable
139.
Brampton-Centre
Amandeep Sodhi
 L PLC probable
140.
Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud
Kristina Tesser Derksen
 L PLC probable
141.
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Jeff Kibble
 C Pivot PLC/NPD
142.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Tim Louis
 L PLC probable
143.
Terra Nova—Les Péninsules
Jonathan Rowe
 C PLC probable
144.
Brampton-Nord—Caledon
Ruby Sahota
 L PLC probable
145.
Brampton-Sud
Sonia Sidhu
 L PLC probable
146.
London—Fanshawe
Kurt Holman
 C NPD probable
147.
Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore
Kathy Borrelli
 C PLC probable
148.
Kelowna
Stephen Fuhr
 L PLC probable
149.
Richmond-Est—Steveston
Parm Bains
 L PLC probable
150.
Windsor-Ouest
Harbinder Gill
 C NPD probable
151.
Labrador
Philip Earle
 L PLC probable
152.
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park
Shafqat Ali
 L PLC probable
153.
Brampton-Est
Maninder Sidhu
 L PLC probable
154.
Calgary Confederation
Corey Hogan
 L PLC probable
155.
Cumberland—Colchester
Alana Hirtle
 L PLC probable
156.
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma
Terry Sheehan
 L PLC probable
157.
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Pauline Rochefort
 L PLC probable
158.
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Gurbux Saini
 L PLC probable
159.
Acadie—Annapolis
Chris d’Entremont [Élu avec le PCC]
 L PLC probable
160.
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Marcus Powlowski
 L PLC probable
161.
Port Moody—Coquitlam
Zoe Royer
 L PLC probable
162.
Surrey-Sud—White Rock
Ernie Klassen
 L PLC probable
163.
Surrey Newton
Sukh Dhaliwal
 L PLC probable
164.
Surrey-Centre
Randeep Sarai
 L PLC probable
165.
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Ron McKinnon
 L PLC probable
166.
Mississauga-Est—Cooksville
Peter Fonseca
 L PLC probable
167.
Egmont
Bobby Morrissey
 L PLC probable
168.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Vince Gasparro
 L PLC probable
169.
Bay of Quinte
Christopher Malette
 L PLC probable
170.
Carleton
Bruce Fanjoy
 L PLC probable
171.
Markham—Stouffville
Helena Jaczek
 L PLC probable
172.
Oakville-Est
Anita Anand
 L PLC probable
173.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Rechie Valdez
 L PLC probable
174.
Hamilton Mountain
Lisa Hepfner
 L PLC probable
175.
Burnaby Central
Wade Wei Lin Chang
 L PLC probable
176.
Jonquière
Mario Simard
 B BQ probable
177.
Courtenay—Alberni
Gord Johns
 N NPD probable
178.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Charles Sousa
 L PLC probable
179.
Oakville-Ouest
Sima Acan
 L PLC probable
180.
Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest
Adam van Koeverden
 L PLC probable
181.
Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish
Jaime Battiste
 L PLC probable
182.
Whitby
Ryan Turnbull
 L PLC probable
183.
Mont-Royal
Anthony Housefather
 L PLC probable
184.
Delta
Jill McKnight
 L PLC probable
185.
Nova-Centre
Sean Fraser
 L PLC probable
186.
Beauport—Limoilou
Steeve Lavoie
 L PLC probable
187.
Mississauga—Malton
Iqwinder Gaheer
 L PLC probable
188.
Nunavut
Lori Idlout [Élu avec le NPD]
 L Pivot PLC/NPD
189.
Territoires du Nord-Ouest
Rebecca Alty
 L PLC probable
190.
Yukon
Brendan Hanley
 L PLC solide
191.
Edmonton-Centre
Eleanor Olszewski
 L PLC solide
192.
Mississauga-Centre
Fares Al Soud
 L PLC solide
193.
Markham—Thornhill
Tim Hodgson
 L PLC solide
194.
Sudbury
Viviane Lapointe
 L PLC solide
195.
Willowdale
Ali Ehsassi
 L PLC solide
196.
New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville
Jake Sawatzky
 L Pivot PLC/NPD
197.
St. Catharines
Chris Bittle
 L PLC solide
198.
Pickering—Brooklin
Juanita Nathan
 L PLC solide
199.
Cardigan
Kent McDonald
 L PLC solide
200.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Jean Yip
 L PLC solide
201.
Don Valley-Nord
Maggie Chi
 L PLC solide
202.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Iqra Khalid
 L PLC solide
203.
Etobicoke-Nord
John Zerucelli
 L PLC solide
204.
Etobicoke-Centre
Yvan Baker
 L PLC solide
205.
Peterborough
Emma Harrison
 L PLC solide
206.
Winnipeg-Ouest
Doug Eyolfson
 L PLC solide
207.
Malpeque
Heath MacDonald
 L PLC solide
208.
Prescott—Russell—Cumberland
Giovanna Mingarelli
 L PLC solide
209.
Sydney—Glace Bay
Mike Kelloway
 L PLC solide
210.
South Shore—St. Margarets
Jessica Fancy-Landry
 L PLC solide
211.
Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud
Gregor Robertson
 L PLC solide
212.
Hamilton-Centre
Aslam Rana
 L Pivot PLC/NPD
213.
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Buckley Belanger
 L PLC solide
214.
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan
Marilene Gill
 B BQ probable
215.
Burlington
Karina Gould
 L PLC solide
216.
Madawaska—Restigouche
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
 L PLC solide
217.
Ajax
Jennifer McKelvie
 L PLC solide